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This weekend’s midnight movie at the Egyptian happens to be the BEST MOVIE OF ALL TIME: Blue Velvet. Seattle, you are too lucky. For theater information, click here.

Have you seen Public Enemies?  The new Michael Mann film is fabulous.  Don’t listen to the naysayers, this is one of the best films of the year.  It looks amazing (shot on HD digital), the acting is superb (espcially the gorgeous Marion Cotillard), the details are precise, and the story is old school Hollywood romanticism.  For the high-brow types, the film provokes thought about criminality and technology (in the movie and about the movie).  For the low-brow, the action is gripping (loved all the shootouts).  Loved this movie.  My score:  83 out of 100.

Over at The Envelope (Los Angeles Times), Scott Feinberg wonders if there are some upsets coming in the acting categories. Our answer is yes if he insists on thinking Sean Penn will win Best Actor. Which he clearly senses, since he designates a Mickey Rourke win over Penn as his #1 upset.   Check out the rest on his list here.

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Let the post-BAFTA analysis begin!  As far as we’re concerned, the Oscar race is over.  After the BAFTA’s on Sunday, all six big categories are pretty muched locked.  It would now take a miracle to derail Slumdog Millionaire as best picture and Danny Boyle as best director.  Slumdog has now won all the major awards (Golden Globes, DGA, SAG, BAFTA) and there is no indication its momentum is letting up.  The acting categories breakdown as follows:  Kate Winslet for best actress, Mickey Rourke for best actor, Heath Ledger for best supporting actor and Penelope Cruz for best supporting actress.  As we mentioned previously, the BAFTA’s have correctly predicted the four acting categories the last two years in a row.  There is no reason to believe things would be different this year.  Most pundits, wisely enough, are not as confident about who will win on February 22.  Some still seems to think that Mickey Rourke will lose to Sean Penn in the lead actor category.  While both gave amazing perormances, Rourke’s comeback story is too good for Academy voters to pass up.  Plus, Penn already has an Oscar.  For us, Rourke’s performance was the best of the year and we predict he wille edge out Penn on Oscar night.

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Oscar (and Bafta) acting winners in 2008

 

This year’s BAFTA’s were handed out today and things continue to look good for Slumdog Millionaire, as it won best picture, best director, best adapted screenplay, best music, best cinematography, best editing and best sound.  At this point, for any other film to win the best picture Oscar on February 22 would be considered an upset. 

As for the acting categories, an interesting thing has happened in the last two years during the movie awards season: every actor who has won a BAFTA award also went on to win on Oscar.   Will this trend continue?  We think so.  This bodes well for Kate Winslet, Mickey Rourke, Penelope Cruz and Heath Ledger, all winners today in their respective acting categories.

Here is a full list of the winners at the Orange British Academy Film Awards, or the BAFTA’s, held at London’s Royal Opera House in Covent Garden on Sunday:

BEST FILM
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Christian Colson

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
MAN ON WIRE Simon Chinn / James Marsh

THE CARL FOREMAN AWARD for Special Achievement by a British Director, Writer or Producer for their First Feature Film
STEVE McQUEEN Director/Writer – Hunger

DIRECTOR
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Danny Boyle

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

IN BRUGES Martin McDonagh

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Simon Beaufoy

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG Yves Marmion / Philippe Claudel

ANIMATED FILM
WALL•E Andrew Stanton

LEADING ACTOR
MICKEY ROURKE The Wrestler

LEADING ACTRESS
KATE WINSLET Revolutionary Road

SUPPORTING ACTOR
HEATH LEDGER The Dark Knight

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PENÉLOPE CRUZ Vicky Cristina Barcelona

MUSIC
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE A. R. Rahman

CINEMATOGRAPHY
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Anthony Dod Mantle

EDITING
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Chris Dickens

PRODUCTION DESIGN
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Donald Graham Burt / Victor J. Zolfo

COSTUME DESIGN
THE DUCHESS Michael O’Connor

MAKE UP & HAIR
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Jean Black / Colleen Callaghan

SOUND
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Glenn Freemantle / Resul Pookutty / Richard Pryke / Tom Sayers / Ian Tapp

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Eric Barba / Craig Barron / Nathan McGuinness / Edson Williams

SHORT ANIMATION
WALLACE AND GROMIT: A MATTER OF LOAF AND DEATH Steve Pegram / Nick Park / Bob Baker

SHORT FILM
SEPTEMBER Stewart

ACADEMY FELLOWSHIP
TERRY GILLIAM

OUTSTANDING BRITISH CONTRIBUTION TO CINEMA
PINEWOOD STUDIOS / SHEPPERTON STUDIOS

THE ORANGE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
NOEL CLARKE

This week proved to bring some trouble to 4 of our 5 favorites in the “Big 5″ Oscar Races (Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor).  Could it be a backlash to being perceived as the front runner?  It is difficult to maintain momentum as the race wears on.  Academy voters received their ballots in the mail this week and have just over two weeks to make their final decision.  They have until February 17 to return them.  In the meantime, we’ll be assessing the Big 5 races for the next 3 weeks.  Here’s where we stand so far:

 

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
For the first time this season Slumdog, this year’s Oscar darling, is showing signs of vulnerability.  Still the odds-on favorite, a few pundits are beginning to wonder if Slumdog can really win the big prize.  Meanwhile, this turn of events benefits both Buttons and The Reader.  

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PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Both Meryl Streep, who won at the SAGS, and Anne Hathaway seemed to gain some buzz this week.  Kate Winslet remains the favorite, but only by a tiny margin.  Not enough people saw Melissa Leo  and Angelina Jolie has little chance of winning this year.  It is a surprise she was even nominated.

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 PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
We must admit we are surprised that Sean Penn has picked up so much steam from his SAG win last week.  Mr. Penn was the early favorite, but then Mickey Rourke won the Golden Globe a few weeks ago and emerged as a real contender.  Add the increased buzz for Mr. Langella and things are getting very interesting in the race for Best Actor.  We remain convinced Rourke will win.  

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PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
This is the only category with a clear and definite favorite: Heath Ledger will win an Oscar for his amazing performance in The Dark Knight.  He appears to only gain momentum as Oscar night approaches, while none of his fellow nominees seem capable of an upset.

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PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Like so many years before, the Supporting Actress category is turning into a toss-up.  There is some minor consensus that Penelope Cruz is a slight favorite, but Marisa Tomei and Viola Davis could easily end up winning come Oscar night.  It’s doubtful (wink, wink) Amy Adams will win.  Taraji P. Henson is a very long shot.  

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As the Oscar race heads into its final weeks, several sites around the web are tracking the buzz (or the chances) of each nominee in the big categories, ourselves included.  Here’s a look at some of our favorites:

USA TODAY
The folks over at USA Today have created a nifty “Oscar Tracker” for the five top awards (Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress).   We love it because it combines factors such as buzz, the Golden Globes, guild awards, critics awards, andbox office clout.  We agree with most of their results, except for Best Actress.  They have Anne Hathaway as the favorite.  We can’ t see her beating both Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep.

THE ENVELOPE (L.A. Times)
Tom O’Neil has his Buzzmeter on his blog, Gold Derby, at the L.A. Times.   Four pundits, plus himself, offer their predictions on the five top awards.  This time we take issue with their unanimous support of Sean Penn for Best Actor.  We think Mickey Rourke has a very good chance of upsetting Penn.  

MOVIE CITY NEWS
The folks at Movie City News track almost all the Oscar categories on Gurus of Gold, an Oscar tracker that consults more than a dozen pundits.  This site, we feel, is taking the most accurate pulse of the race right now.

Frank Langella, Mickey Rourke, Brad Pitt, Robery Downey, Jr., Anne Hathaway, and Sally Hawkins sit around a table and talk with David Ansen and Ramin Setoodeh for Newsweek’s 12th Annual Oscar Roundtable.  Hilarity ensues.

“Do you google yourself?”

 

“Im not sexually attracted to you?”

 

For full list of videos, click here.

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