CINEMATADOR

This week proved to bring some trouble to 4 of our 5 favorites in the “Big 5″ Oscar Races (Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor).  Could it be a backlash to being perceived as the front runner?  It is difficult to maintain momentum as the race wears on.  Academy voters received their ballots in the mail this week and have just over two weeks to make their final decision.  They have until February 17 to return them.  In the meantime, we’ll be assessing the Big 5 races for the next 3 weeks.  Here’s where we stand so far:

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
For the first time this season Slumdog, this year’s Oscar darling, is showing signs of vulnerability.  Still the odds-on favorite, a few pundits are beginning to wonder if Slumdog can really win the big prize.  Meanwhile, this turn of events benefits both Buttons and The Reader.  

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Both Meryl Streep, who won at the SAGS, and Anne Hathaway seemed to gain some buzz this week.  Kate Winslet remains the favorite, but only by a tiny margin.  Not enough people saw Melissa Leo  and Angelina Jolie has little chance of winning this year.  It is a surprise she was even nominated.

 PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
We must admit we are surprised that Sean Penn has picked up so much steam from his SAG win last week.  Mr. Penn was the early favorite, but then Mickey Rourke won the Golden Globe a few weeks ago and emerged as a real contender.  Add the increased buzz for Mr. Langella and things are getting very interesting in the race for Best Actor.  We remain convinced Rourke will win.  

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
This is the only category with a clear and definite favorite: Heath Ledger will win an Oscar for his amazing performance in The Dark Knight.  He appears to only gain momentum as Oscar night approaches, while none of his fellow nominees seem capable of an upset.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Like so many years before, the Supporting Actress category is turning into a toss-up.  There is some minor consensus that Penelope Cruz is a slight favorite, but Marisa Tomei and Viola Davis could easily end up winning come Oscar night.  It’s doubtful (wink, wink) Amy Adams will win.  Taraji P. Henson is a very long shot.  

As the Oscar race heads into its final weeks, several sites around the web are tracking the buzz (or the chances) of each nominee in the big categories, ourselves included.  Here’s a look at some of our favorites:

USA TODAY
The folks over at USA Today have created a nifty “Oscar Tracker” for the five top awards (Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress).   We love it because it combines factors such as buzz, the Golden Globes, guild awards, critics awards, andbox office clout.  We agree with most of their results, except for Best Actress.  They have Anne Hathaway as the favorite.  We can’ t see her beating both Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep.

THE ENVELOPE (L.A. Times)
Tom O’Neil has his Buzzmeter on his blog, Gold Derby, at the L.A. Times.   Four pundits, plus himself, offer their predictions on the five top awards.  This time we take issue with their unanimous support of Sean Penn for Best Actor.  We think Mickey Rourke has a very good chance of upsetting Penn.  

MOVIE CITY NEWS
The folks at Movie City News track almost all the Oscar categories on Gurus of Gold, an Oscar tracker that consults more than a dozen pundits.  This site, we feel, is taking the most accurate pulse of the race right now.

Frank Langella, Mickey Rourke, Brad Pitt, Robery Downey, Jr., Anne Hathaway, and Sally Hawkins sit around a table and talk with David Ansen and Ramin Setoodeh for Newsweek’s 12th Annual Oscar Roundtable.  Hilarity ensues.

“Do you google yourself?”

“Im not sexually attracted to you?”

For full list of videos, click here.

The Screen Actors Guild awards were handed out Sunday night.  While winning a SAG awards does not necessarily mean anything on its own, it does mean something when a movie or actor has also won a Golden Globe and/or another guild award or (as in the case of Slumdog Millionaire) racked up a truckload of various movie awards.  The SAG Awards confirmed that Slumdog and Heath Ledger are virtually unstoppable in the Best Picture and Supporting Actor categories, respectively.  They also added momentum to Kate Winslet’s bid for her first Oscar (as Best Actress).  While Sean Pen won Best Actor at the SAGS, we think Mickey Rourke is still the favorite for the Oscar.  The Supporting Actress category is unclear; most pundits are calling Penelope Cruz.  Below are the our assessment of where the big races stand, post-SAGs.   

• David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
• Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
• Gus Van Sant (Milk)
• Stephen Daldry (The Reader)
• Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)

The nominations for the Academy Awards were announced yesterday and since then Oscar observers have been analyzing the results.  Some, like Mr. Tapley at In Contention, were downright angry.    Others, like Sasha Stone at Awards Daily, tried to be zen about the whole thing.  Some consensus has emerged about who was snubbed (most notably The Dark Knight and Bruce Springsteen).   It is important to remember, as Dave Kehr points out in this article in the NY Times, the Oscar often go the the movie (or actor, director, writer) that is not the “best.”  So why all the fuss?  Because it is entertaining (interesting: the movie keeps on entertaining even after we have left the theater). 

Next on the calendar: the Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAGs).  Here’s a preview from Awards Daily.  While it is true that the SAGs do not predict winners at the Oscars, we think this year may be different.  Our picks for the SAGs (and thus the Oscars) follow below.

[Predicted winners marked with * and include only the film categories.]

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
RICHARD JENKINS / Walter Vale – “THE VISITOR” (Overture Films)
FRANK LANGELLA / Richard Nixon – “FROST/NIXON” (Universal Pictures)
SEAN PENN / Harvey Milk – “MILK” (Focus Features)
BRAD PITT / Benjamin Button – “THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON” (Paramount Pictures)
*MICKEY ROURKE / Randy – “THE WRESTLER” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
ANNE HATHAWAY / Kym – “RACHEL GETTING MARRIED” (Sony Pictures Classics)
ANGELINA JOLIE / Christine Collins – “CHANGELING” (Universal Pictures)
MELISSA LEO / Ray Eddy – “FROZEN RIVER” (Sony Pictures Classics)
MERYL STREEP / Sister Aloysius Beauvier – “DOUBT” (Miramax Films)
*KATE WINSLET / April Wheeler – “REVOLUTIONARY ROAD” (Paramount Vantage)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
JOSH BROLIN / Dan White – “MILK” (Focus Features)
ROBERT DOWNEY, JR. / Kirk Lazarus – “TROPIC THUNDER” (Paramount Pictures)
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN / Father Brendan Flynn – “DOUBT” (Miramax Films)
*HEATH LEDGER / Joker – “THE DARK KNIGHT” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
DEV PATEL / Older Jamal – “SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
AMY ADAMS / Sister James – “DOUBT” (Miramax Flms)
*PENÉLOPE CRUZ / Maria Elena – “VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA” (The Weinstein Company)
VIOLA DAVIS / Mrs. Miller – “DOUBT” (Miramax Films)
TARAJI P. HENSON / Queenie – “THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON” (Paramount Pictures)
KATE WINSLET / Hanna Schmitz – “THE READER” (The Weinstein Company)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
DOUBT (Miramax)
FROST/NIXON (Universal Pictures)
*MILK (Focus Features)
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON (Paramount Pictures)

The nominations for the 81st Annual Academy Awards, otherwise known as the Oscars, were announced early this morning.  There were no major surprises as the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences mostly played it safe.  There were some minor surprises: “The Reader” earning both  Best Picture and Best Direction nominations and in the acting categories Michael Shannon for “Revolutionary Road” and Melissa Leo for “Frozen River.”  As usual, there were some snubs.  Most notably, Bruce Springsteen was not nominated for Best Song for his Golden Globe winning single from “The Wrestler.”  And no Kate Winslet for “The Reader” (which got a Best Pic nod: perplexing). And, of course, “The Dark Knight” being overlooked in the Best Picture category.   More analysis to follow.   Below is a complete list of the nominations:

BEST PICTURE
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”
Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
Kate Winslet, “The Reader”

BEST ACTOR
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”
Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “Doubt”
Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, “Milk”
Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Michael Shannon, “Revolutionary Road”

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”
David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Dustin Lance Black, “Milk”
Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”
Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Marttin McDonagh, “In Bruges”
Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, “WALL-E”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire”
David Hare, “The Reader”
Peter Morgan, “Frost/Nixon”
John Patrick Shanley, “Doubt”
Eric Roth, Robin Swicord, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“The Baader-Meinhof Complex” (Germany)
“The Class” (France)
“Departures” (Japan)
“Revanche” (Austria)
“Waltz with Bashir” (Israel)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
“Bolt”
“Kung Fu Panda”
“WALL-E”

BEST ART DIRECTION
“Changeling”
“The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button”
“Dark Knight”
“The Duchess”
“Revolutionary Road”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Changeling” Tom Stern
“Slumdog Millionaire,” Anthony Dod Mantle
“The Reader,” Chris Menges
“The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button,” Claudio Miranda
“The Dark Knight,” Wally Pfister,

BEST FILM EDITING
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall
“The Dark Knight,” Lee Smith
“Frost/Nixon,” Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
“Milk,” Elliot Graham
“Slumdog Millionaire,” Chris Dickens

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Australia,” Catherine Martin
“The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button,” Jacqueline West
“The Duchess,” Michael O’Conner
“Milk”, Danny Glicker
“Revolutionary Road,” Albert Wolsky

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)”
“Encounters at the End of the World”
“The Garden”
“Man on Wire”
“Trouble the Water”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Slumdog Millionaire,” “Jai Ho,” A.R. Rahman
“Slumdog Millionaire,” “O Saya,” A.R. Rahman & M.I.A.
“WALL-E,” “Down To Earth,” Peter Gabriel & Thomas Newman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button,” Alexandre Desplat
“Defiance,” James Newton Howard
“Milk,” Danny Elfman
“Slumdog Millionaire,” A.R. Rahman
“WALL-E,” Thomas Newman

BEST MAKEUP
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Colleen Callaghan, Fionagh Cush
“The Dark Knight,” Peter Robb-King, John Caglione Jr.
“Hellboy II: The Golden Army,” Mike Elizalde, Thom Floutz

BEST SOUND EDITING
“The Dark Knight,” Richard King
“Iron Man,” Frank Eulner, Christopher Boyes
“Slumdog Millionaire,” Tom Sayers
“WALL-E,” Ben Burtt, Matthew Wood
“Wanted,” Wylie Stateman

BEST SOUND MIXING
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Mark Weingarten, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce
“The Dark Knight,” Ed Novick, Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo
“Slumdog Millionaire,” Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty
“WALL-E,” Ben Burtt, Tom Myers, Michael Semanick
“Wanted,” Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño and Petr Forejt

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Eric Barba
“The Dark Knight,” Chris Corbould, Nick Davis, Paul Franklin, Tim Webber
“Iron Man,” John Nelson

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
“Auf der Strecke (On the Line)”
“Manon on the Asphalt”
“New Boy”
“The Pig”
“Spielzeugland (Toyland)”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“La Maison en Petits Cubes”
“Lavatory – Lovestory”
“Oktapodi”
“Presto”
“This Way Up”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
“The Conscience of Nhem En”
“The Final Inch”
“Smile Pinki”
“The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306″

Two days before the Oscar nominations are revealed, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly has issued his predictions.  Last year Karger got 34 of the 40 nominations right.  We love that he thinks The Dark Knight will earn a Best Picture nomination.   Check out the rest of his predictions here.

The nominations for the 81st Annual Academy Awards will be announced on Thursday, January 22, 2009.   Several frontrunners have emerged over the last six weeks of the “Movie Awards Season.”  Foremost among them is Slumdog Millionaire.  Since being named Best Picture back in early December by the National Board of Review it has continued to rack up award after award (see comprehensive list of award wins at efilmcritic).  That it will be nominated for Best Picture is a foregone conclusion; the question now is can it sustain its momentum and win come February 22?  Has the fate of Slumdog Millionaire, like its protagonist Jamal Malik, already been preordained?

As for the other contenders, In Contention offers their predictions on who will get nominated in nine major categories.   Below we offer our own commentary on who will be nominated in the six top awards:

BEST PICTURE
LOCKS
     Slumdog Millionaire  
     The Curious Case of Benjamin Button  
MAYBE
     Frost/Nixon  
     Milk  
     The Wrestler 
HOT BUZZ 
     Gran Torino  
THE LONG SHOTS
     The Dark Knight  
     WALL-E 

BEST ACTOR
LOCKS
     Sean Penn, Milk
     Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
     Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon    
MAYBE
     Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
     Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
HOT BUZZ 
      Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
THE LONG SHOT
     Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
     Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ACTRESS
LOCKS
     Meryl Streep, Doubt 
     Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road 
     Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married 
MAYBE
     Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
     Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
     Kristen Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
HOT BUZZ
     Melissa Leo, Frozen River

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
LOCKS
     Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
     Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder 
MAYBE
     Josh Brolin, Milk
     Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
     Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire 
THE LONG SHOT
     James Franco, Milk or Pineapple Express

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
LOCKS
     Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
     Viola Davis, Doubt
     Kate Winslet, The Reader
MAYBE
     Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
     Amy Adams, Doubt 
THE LONG SHOT
     Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading 

BEST DIRECTOR
LOCKS
     Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire 
     David Fincher, The Curious case of Benjamin Button
MAYBE 
     Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
     Gus Van Sant, Milk 
     Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler 
HOT BUZZ
      Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
THE LONG SHOT
     Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona